Writing

Marketing mix modelling, causal inference, and the measurement problems underneath both — written from client work, not from theory alone.

Google Meridian Adstock and Hill Saturation: How It Differs From the Standard Formula

Almost every MMM tutorial teaches adstock as a recursive carryover formula. Google Meridian does not implement that formula. The difference changes what your decay rate means, how half-life should be computed, and whether your Hill saturation parameters are interpretable at all.

Synthetic Panels: Can an LLM Predict Consumer Response?

Language models will answer any survey question you put to them. The question is whether those answers correlate with what a real panel would have said, and where the correlation breaks.

Why Print Media Fails the Breakeven Test

Print carried well in the model, a 1.9 week half-life and a respectable adstock multiplier. It still did not pay for itself in eleven of fourteen regions.